221 research outputs found
Méthodologie et modÚle d'analyse de la vulnérabilité et du risque des systÚmes critiques interdépendants (regular paper)
Le travail présenté dans ce papier a pour objectif l'analyse des réseaux interdépendants, en vue de modéliser la vulnérabilité et le risque. Les concepts de SystÚme et de composant critique sont définis. Une approche de modélisation des réseaux est présentée. Cette modélisation compatible avec la théorie des graphes, est basée sur l'analyse des interdépendances et des influences du milieu extérieur. Une démarche pour quantifier la vulnérabilité et le risque est également présentée. Celle-ci se décline en plusieurs étapes intégrant une analyse qualitative et quantitative. La méthodologie proposée inclue l'identification des systÚmes à analyser, du contexte ainsi que l'évaluation des évÚnements redoutés
Decision aid problems criteria for infrastructure networks vulnerability analysis (regular paper)
Natural disasters through infrastructure networks might aggravate or mitigate consequences to stakes. The objective of this paper is to characterize this kind of situation in order to provide a solid foundation for the decision aid. This characterization includes a description of the typology, actions and potential actions identification, determining preference systems, as well as a set of specific problems to each phase
Infrastructure network vulnerability
The work presented in this paper aims to propose a methodology of analyzing infrastructure network vulnerability in the field of prevention or reduction of the natural disaster consequences. After a state of the art on vulnerability models in the academic literature, the various vulnerability factors are classified and discussed. Eventually, a general model of vulnerability analysis including societal parameters is presented
Hybridization of Bayesian networks and belief functions to assess risk. Application to aircraft deconstruction
This paper aims to present a study on knowledge management for the disassembly of end-of-life aircraft. We propose a model using Bayesian networks to assess risk and present three approaches to integrate the belief functions standing for the representation of fuzzy and uncertain knowledge
Analyse des systÚmes - Sûreté de fonctionnement
La complexitĂ© croissante des organisations et systĂšmes industriels et la recherche rĂ©currente dâune meilleure compĂ©titivitĂ© forcent les entreprises et gestionnaires dâĂ©quipements Ă une Ă©valuation systĂ©matique et quasi continue des performances.
La performance est multidimensionnelle. DĂ©clinĂ©e suivant des attributs de coĂ»t, qualitĂ©, dĂ©lai,âŠ, des critĂšres de productivitĂ©, flexibilitĂ©, robustesse,âŠ, des aspects environnementaux, sociaux, sociĂ©taux,âŠ, elle doit ĂȘtre Ă©valuĂ©e sur l'ensemble du cycle de vie du systĂšme ou des produits rĂ©alisĂ©s.
Cette diversitĂ©, motivĂ©e par une logique socio-Ă©conomique de dĂ©veloppement durable, gĂ©nĂšre un besoin fort en mĂ©thodologies, techniques et outils pour aider aux choix des dĂ©cideurs dans les phases de conception, de dĂ©veloppement ou dâexploitation des produits et systĂšmes.
Nombreuses sont les rĂ©ponses ; nombreux aussi sont les ouvrages et articles spĂ©cialisĂ©s qui exposent celles-ci, depuis un Ă©tat dĂ©taillĂ© de toutes les formes dâaide jusquâĂ la prĂ©sentation prĂ©cise dâoutil ou de technique particuliĂšre.
Lâobjectif de l'article est de fournir une approche efficace dâanalyse dâun systĂšme afin d'estimer et d'Ă©valuer la performance de celui-ci.
Les Ă©lĂ©ments mĂ©thodologiques qui garantissent une analyse rationnelle du systĂšme et de ses performances seront mis en exergue, focalisant sur les aspects sĂ»retĂ© de fonctionnement considĂ©rĂ©s dĂšs les Ă©tapes de conception ; la recherche de performance est, en effet, corrĂ©lĂ©e au souci constant dâamĂ©lioration de la disponibilitĂ© opĂ©rationnelle du systĂšme et dâoptimisation de son coĂ»t global de possession
BOCR framework for decision analysis
This paper considers establishing a framework for modellig decision analysis problems where the analyst must cope with uncertainty, multiple objectives, multiple attributes and multiple actors. These probems rise when considering large scale and complex decision problems encountered in real world applications in domains such as risk assessment and managment, infrastrucutres planning, complex process monitoring, supply chain planning, etc. To tackle this modelling chalenges, we propose to use BOCR (benefit, opportunity, cost, and risk) paradigm to identify attributes that must characterize an alternative with regard to a given objective. Then Bayesian network and/or AHP (analytic hierrarchy process) analysis can be used to assess the values of these later attributes. Finally an aggregation method based on satisficing game is developed that permit to evaluate each alternative by two measures: selectability degree constructed using âpositiveâ attributes (benefit and opportunity) and the rejectability degree built on ânegativeâ attributes (cost and risk)
Modelling complex large scale systems using object oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN)
The aim of this communication is to present a new way of how to structure modelling process of complex and large scale systems by object oriented Bayesian network (OOBN) for risk assessment and management purpose. In the first stage, we extend OOBN by presenting a new definition that introduces some flexibility, in a second stage, dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) described by OOBN method are presented, that leads to a framework that we refer to as Dynamic Objet Oriented Bayesian Network (DOOBN). A demonstration in the domain of risk assessment of flash floods effect on the infrastructures inoperability is considered to show potential applicability of the extended OOBN
Adaptive response surface method supporting finite element calculations: an application to power electronic module reliability assessment
In this paper a method is proposed, introducing an adaptive response surface allowing, on the one hand, to minimize the number of calls to finite element codes for the assessment of the parameters of the response surface and, on the other hand, to refine the solution around the design point by iterating through the procedure. This method is implemented in a parallel environment to optimize the calculation time with respect of the architecture of a computational cluster
Decision Support System for Infrastructure Networks Vulnerability to Natural Disaster
This poster presents the mean contribution of the project VESTA (Vulnérabilité des rESeaux face aux caTastrophes nAturelles
Decision support system for infrastructure network disruption management
This paper deals with the development of a Decision Support System (DSS). The DSS (VESTA) aims to analyse the vulnerability of interdependent critical infrastructures in the context of natural disaster. The issues in this particular decision context are identified. Characteristics to be respected and the software architecture are presented. Various modules components of the system are described. The methodology presents different granularity of the implementation and the use of the DSS
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